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Now that we’ve entered the start of Q4, many entrepreneurs are thinking about their next steps…
The end of year is a time of reflection, goal setting and planning ahead. This often includes whether it’s is a good time to sell the business or keep building it for one more year.
However for those employed in the ‘deal industry’ (bankers, lawyers, brokers etc) this is also a time to hit end of year targets to get to year-end bonuses, including the deal teams at big companies looking for acquisitions.
This gives rise to a claim I often see repeated, that the end of the year is the best time to get a deal over the line. But is this truly the case? Let’s investigate that claim.
Note: this mostly applies to the US and Europe, if your country’s tax year end is different to calendar year end (UK is april for example) this might be different to you.
📊 Is Q4 Really Busier for Dealmaking?
Yes, activity often ramps into year-end. Deal teams frequently push to finish processes before December close, creating a visible Q4 jump in completions in some sectors. For example, enterprise SaaS M&A snapped back in Q4 2024, with volume approaching 2021 highs. PitchBook
2025 expectations: Private-equity dealmakers flagged a potential Q4 pickup as sale preparations increased late summer. (This is just their takes, not a certainty) PitchBook
But it’s not universal. In middle-market data, Q4 2024 finished only slightly above Q3 and far from a blowout, showing that year-end surges are not guaranteed. Keiter CPA
Bottom line: Q4 often has a rush to close, but the magnitude varies by sector, size, and macro conditions.
💵 But Does ‘Busier’ mean Better Valuations?
Multiples track fundamentals and macro, not the month. Valuation is ultimately a function of earnings, growth, risk, and rates—calendar seasonality isn’t a driver in itself. Morgan Stanley
Macro drives buyer capacity. After a deep 2023–early 2024 slowdown, buyout value bounced up in 2024 as rates stabilized and the bid-ask gap narrowed. This kind of momentum matters more than which quarter you’re in Bain
Current environment: 2025 mid-year reads show lower volumes but higher values in some regions; megadeals and AI-linked activity are key swing factors. Again, not tied to Q4 per se. PwC+1
Bottom line: Q4 doesn’t automatically produce higher multiples.
Market cycle matters more than calendar quarter.
📌 Verdict
Is Q4 often busier? Frequently, yes.
Is Q4 inherently “better”? Not by itself. Value is driven by macro conditions, sector momentum, and your numbers/story, not the month.
What should you optimize? Readiness and trajectory (financial clarity, growth, and risk) plus clean books so you’re ready whenever a good deal comes. Time Q4 if it supports those goals; don’t force it if Q1–Q3 gives you a stronger bargaining position.
🧠 Strategy: How to Use the Calendar (Without Being Used by It)
Sell “into strength,” not into December. Aim for:
Trends peaking or at least trending up
Clean, audit-ready books
A credible 12–24 month growth story that survives buyer diligence regardless of the month. (Multiples follow fundamentals and macro, not the page of the calendar.)
If you do target Q4:
Start prep by late Q2/early Q3 to control data quality, lock in your growth story, and avoid December “process compression.” (Many deals start in autumn to close by year-end.)
Ensure quality of earnings diligence explicitly normalizes seasonal effects and year-end accruals so buyers don’t haircut value late in the process. For example if you don’t have enough working capital the buyer might expect concessions from you. In general though the ‘tweaks’ at the end of the deal is almost always in favor of the buyer not you, so don’t get pushed around or fall for pressure selling tactics (which happens in these types of transactions). Remember it’s them that want their end of year bonuses, so you have all their leverage to get it the deal over the line quickly on your terms.BDO
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Hope this helps!
Unlocking Wealth Weekly